Project Overview

[Dingo]

Project Summary:  

The aim of the project Ideologias@Home is to study how people in a certain region evolve ideologically over time with respect to an idea. When an idea is introduced in a society, the population is divided naturally into four groups:

   Extremists: those who defend the idea extremely.
   Moderates: those who defend the idea moderately.
   Opponents: those who are against the idea.
   Abstentionists: those who do not care, abstain or have not opinion.

People change their minds because of peer pressure, the influence of mass media or because because they come to a different conclusion of their own accord. Under this assumption, we propose dynamic models, determine the parameters, predict trends and analyse results.

You can contact the researcher in charge for additional information:

   Dr. Javier Villanueva
   Email jvillanueva AT cesfelipesegundo.com
   Phone number +34 91 809 92 00 extension 210
   Universidad Complutense de Madrid - CES Felipe II
   Aranjuez - Madrid - Spain

Applications:

Microsoft Windows (98 or later) running on an Intel x86-compatible CPU    
Linux running on an Intel x86-compatible CPU    
(More applications to come and both applications run on my Windows and Linux 64 bit PC's)

Connecting URL:

http://falua.cesfelipesegundo.com/Ideologias/

Statistics:  

  http://boincstats.com/stats/team_graph.php?pr=ideologias&id=55

[Dingo]

More Information on the project can be found here but it is in Spanish.  The text translated to English is below but all formatting is gone ...


What is Ideologias@Home The aspects of the extreme ideologies The extremist behaviors are carried out by small groups, but their actions have influence on a great set of people. These groups use the fear like strategy to influence in the decisions of the set of the population to secure their political objectives. The understanding of dynamics in the transmission of these types of extremist behaviors increases the knowledge of the mechanisms that are after the evolution of the norms and cultural values. In addition, tools can provide us to know their evolution a priori, final y S.A. are going to disappear or are going to secure their objectives. According to we know, the antecedents with respect to techniques of modeled mathematical in which the diffusion of the fanatical behaviors is considered are [1, 2, 3, 4]. Recently the reference has been published [5] on mathematical methods in antiterrorism. In [1] studies the dynamics of the diffusion of the extremist behaviors like a type of communicable process by means of social contact (recruitment) that can happen by the friendly influence, companions, surroundings, fear, threats, terrorism, propaganda, application of the law, etc. Thus, is constructed a mathematical model and their points of balance, thresholds and bifurcations study. One of the most interesting conclusions of [1] is that the eradication of these groups can be a task that requires long time, and that before they begin to decay, can grow and still expand by a limited time. In [2] and [3] the authors consider a discretización of the continuous model of [1] through several classes of free networks of scale (scale-free networks), obtaining similar conclusions by means of the use of aspects easily applicable to networks but not in the continuous model, as it can be the rank of interactions between the people. Another interesting reference is [4], where a model of the type quasi-predator-prey is developed and it is applied to the situation in Colombia, with insurgent groups who raptan, deal with drugs, etc. Our objective is to develop mathematical models of type epidemiologist in networks to apply it to regions like Colombia [4], the Basque Country [7, 8], or generally any place where there are armed organizations who use the violence (murder, kidnapping, vandalism, etc.) to secure certain political objectives. The parameters of the mathematical model of networks are not known, and our objective is to find those better parameters in the sense that they cause that the model of networks adjusts to the real data. In order to do that it is necessary to design an intensive computer system. Obsérvese that to ajusar the model is a very difficult aspect that it depends very strongly on the calculation resources which is had. Objectives We have designed a mathematical model of social network of type epidemiologist for the study of the ideological evolution of a society in which a group presses with political aims. This model considers the ideology like a communicable process that is scattered by means of the social transmission. The population is divided in four under-populations of interest: V: those that defend the idea of extreme form. N: those that defend the idea of moderate form. E: those that are against the idea. A: those to which it does not matter to them, abstain or they do not have opinion. where certain parameters determine the transitions between these under-populations, as it is in figure 1. Figure 1: Flow chart of the model of compartmental network for the evolution of ideological under-populations. The boxes represent under-populations and you shoot with an arrow represent the transitions between under-populations. The signs of Β1, Β2 and Β3 determine the sense of shoots with an arrow. This model considers the unknown parameters of the model by means of intensive calculation and without using no equivalent or similar continuous model. In addition it allows us to study how it can influence in him aspects such as the mortality and natality of the population, as well as the flows migratory. What we are calculating The model that is simulated in Ideologias@Home includes a compartmental network of four under-populations which they include the phenomenon of immigration and the emigration, as well as the rates of natality and mortality of a certain region of study. Since this implies a great amount of models to solve (180000 in one first turn), we decided to use BOINC and the aid of volunteers to realise the calculations. The units of work unloaded by the clients are made up of a value group that defines the population to simulate, in particular Time to simulate Accomplishments to calculate Population to consider Rate of mortality Rate of natality Rate of passage of and to A Rate of passage of N to A Rate of passage of V to A Initials of E Initials of N Initials of V Rate of emigration Rate of immigration With these parameters one calculates, for every month, the number of people who belong to each group, and those S-values those that form the solution that is given back. References [1] C. Castle, B. Song, for Models the transmission dynamics of fanatic behaviors, in Bioterrorism: Mathematical Modeling Applications in Homeland Security, SIAM Frontiers in Applied Mathematics, ed.: H.T. Banks and C. Castle, SIAM, Philadelphia, 28 (2003) 155 − 172. [2] D. Stauffer, M. Sahimi, Discrete simulation of the dynamics of spread of carries far opinions in a society, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 364 (May 15, 2006): 537-543, doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.08.040. [3] D. Stauffer, M. Sahimi, Dog to few fanatics influence the opinion of to large segment of to society? , The European Physical Journal B Condensed Matter and Complex Systems 57, no. 2 (May 1, 2007): 147-152, doi: 10.1140/epjb/e2007-00106-7- [4] J.A. Adam, J.A. Sokolowski, C.M. Banks, To two-population insurgency in Colombia: Quasi-predator-prey models-A trend towards simplicity, Mathematical and Computer Modeling 49, no. 5-6 (March 2009): 1115-1126, doi: 10.106/j.mcm.2008.03.017. [5] Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism, Memon, N.; Farley, J.D. ; Hicks, D.L. ; Rosenorn, T. (Eds.) 2009, ISBN: 978-3-211-09441-9 [6] Francisco J. Santonja, Ana C. Tarazona, and Rafael J. Villanueva, To mathematical model of the pressure of an carries far ideology on to society, Computers & Mathematics with Applications 56, no. 3 (August 2008): 836-846, doi: 10.1016/j.camwa.2008.01.001. [7] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque Country (autonomous community) [8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ETA